With just about a year until the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are staring at a political landscape that looks less like 2018’s blue wave and more like a slowly draining reservoir. The numbers tell the story: the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Democrats with a barely-there 1.6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — well within the margin of error, and far from the 8.4-point edge they held heading into their 2018 sweep.
In fact, this looks a lot more like 2022 — when Republicans, despite underperforming expectations, still eked out a majority in the House. Back then, the GOP held a 2.8-point edge in polling. Today, even with Democrats slightly ahead, the fundamentals suggest they are slipping, not surging.
Trump already won the government shutdown battle, at least with the public. Now Democrats need some face-saving way to back down and reopen.
But Trump probably doesn't care either way.
Democrats need a "fake because" to reopen government. Perhaps they can now claim reopening is…
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) October 21, 2025
Consider the current battleground. According to the Cook Political Report, there are just eight Republican-held toss-up seats. Democrats? They’re defending ten, spread across deep-blue states like California and New York, swing districts in Maine and Ohio, and the increasingly competitive suburbs of Texas. In other words, the map is working against them.
And yet, the Democratic Party seems to have no answer. No message. No plan. Instead, we get theater.
Case in point: the “No Kings” protest. Seven million people turned out, or so they say. But who were they? Kamala Harris voters, overwhelmingly. People already fully entrenched in the Democratic base. So what was achieved? Nothing. No new ground was gained, no swing voters persuaded, no independents won over. If anything, the whole event underscored just how small and insular the party has become.
Worse, the optics were cartoonish. Nancy Pelosi — political royalty by any standard — dramatically breaking a crown in a video to denounce kings and oligarchs. This, from a woman who’s spent nearly 40 years in Congress and is reportedly worth over $100 million. If that’s not self-parody, what is?
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders called an obviously satirical AI video from Trump “an attack on an American city.” It was a joke, Bernie. But that’s the problem. Democrats can’t take one.
And all the while, Trump flies overhead — literally — mocking the protests with a viral Truth Social post, feeding off the outrage and playing the media like a fiddle. He knows something the Democrats don’t: he’s not bleeding support. In fact, he’s gaining resilience.
The government shutdown? Not a liability for Trump. CNN’s Harry Enten admitted it’s not hurting him the way it did in 2018-2019. Why? Because people know the script now. Shutdowns are temporary, and the sky doesn’t fall. Democrats once fought to prevent shutdowns. Now they’re hoping to cause one for leverage, and voters see through it.
In terms of voter enthusiasm, Democrats are still showing stronger intent — but that gap is shrinking. And when you lead with shrieking protests, AI outrage, and tired political fossils talking about oligarchs while sitting on massive personal wealth, enthusiasm only carries you so far.
The reality is stark: Democrats are losing the narrative. They’re banking on emotion and spectacle, but the electorate is looking for clarity, stability, and a reason to care.