Selzer Report From Iowa Gets A Lot Of Attention

MONACA, PA - NOVEMBER 02: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden takes off his sunglasses while speaking at a campaign stop at Community College of Beaver County on November 02, 2020 in Monaca, Pennsylvania. One day before the election, Biden is campaigning in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state that President Donald Trump won narrowly in 2016. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The recent release of a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Company has generated significant discussion about its implications for President Joe Biden in the upcoming 2024 election, particularly in battleground states across the Midwest.

The poll, considered a “gold-standard” in Iowa, revealed former President Donald Trump leading with 50% support among likely voters, an 18-point margin over Biden. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 9% support.

This substantial lead for Trump has sparked widespread commentary on social media and among political analysts. The poll also highlighted an increase in Trump’s support following his conviction in a hush-money trial and reported Biden’s net approval rating at -39 in June.

Pollster Frank Luntz weighed in on X, emphasizing the significance of the results by noting, “In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points. Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state – which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”

Luntz also referenced historical data from the same pollster, indicating Trump’s fluctuating lead over Biden in the months leading up to the 2020 election.

Conservative pundit Meghan McCain also voiced her concerns, pointing out that an 18-point lead for Trump in Iowa suggests trouble for Biden in other Midwestern states. “There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin,” McCain stated. She emphasized the reliability of Ann Selzer’s polling, reinforcing the seriousness of these results.

NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur added context by noting Iowa's consistent voting pattern relative to other key battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Kapur observed that while Iowa is not expected to be competitive in 2024, the Selzer poll remains valuable for its predictive insights, given the historical voting margins.

Polls nationwide have generally indicated a close race between Trump and Biden. The anticipation is building as they prepare to face off in their first debate of the 2024 election cycle next week. While Kennedy does not currently qualify for the debate, he may still meet the criteria.

Statistician Nate Silver recently suggested that Biden might consider stepping down due to his low approval ratings, underscoring the urgency for Democrats to reassess their strategy. Silver’s reaction to the Selzer poll results on X was notably blunt, stating, “It’s not a great sign for Biden that some of his worst numbers come from the best pollsters.”

Previous Yellen Appears On ABC For Interview
Next Pete Hegseth Has Solid Book Release