A new survey of likely Republican runoff voters in Texas shows Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim advantage over Sen. John Cornyn as the high-stakes Senate runoff enters its final stretch before the May 26 election.
The poll, conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs between April 28 and May 1, surveyed 1,200 likely voters through text message and online responses. The margin of error stands at plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, placing the race well within statistical uncertainty.
According to the results, Paxton draws support from 48 percent of likely Republican runoff voters, while Cornyn follows closely at 45 percent. Another 7 percent remain undecided, leaving room for movement in the closing weeks of the campaign.
The numbers add to mounting pressure on Cornyn, who has spent years as one of Texas’ most established Republican figures in Washington but now faces growing resistance from the party’s activist base. Paxton, meanwhile, continues to position himself as the more confrontational conservative candidate, leaning heavily into immigration and border security issues that dominate Republican primary politics in Texas.
Favorability ratings in the poll show a slight edge for Paxton as well. Fifty percent of respondents said they view him favorably, while 43 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion. Seven percent said they did not know enough about him to decide. Cornyn’s ratings were slightly weaker, with 47 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, suggesting he enters the runoff with more resistance inside his own party than many longtime incumbents typically face.
The survey also tested which Republican candidate voters believe would perform better against Democrat James Talarico in the November 2026 general election. The results revealed no clear consensus. Forty-three percent said Cornyn would be the stronger nominee, while another 43 percent chose Paxton. Fourteen percent said neither candidate had an advantage.
The latest numbers largely align with previous polling. A March survey from Quantus Insights showed Paxton ahead 48.8 percent to 41.3 percent, with nearly 10 percent undecided. Another earlier poll conducted for Talarico’s campaign found an even larger Paxton lead, placing him ahead 53 percent to 37 percent among likely Republican voters.
The runoff became necessary after neither candidate secured a majority during the March 3 Republican primary. Cornyn finished first with 41.9 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of Paxton’s 40.7 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt placed third with 13.5 percent and was eliminated from contention.
As the runoff campaign intensifies, Paxton has sharpened his attacks on Cornyn’s past immigration positions. Over the weekend, Paxton released a campaign advertisement highlighting remarks Cornyn made in 2013 and 2018 regarding illegal immigration and border infrastructure. The ad featured Cornyn’s statement that Americans are “compassionate people” who would likely “find a way to deal with” millions of illegal immigrants already living in the country. It also cited Cornyn’s later comment that building “a new, giant wall between the United States and Mexico from sea to shining sea makes no sense whatsoever.”
The advertisement closes with the line: “Cornyn: good for illegals, bad for Texans.”
