In sports, when a team dominates their opponent in a single game, they may assume that they will have similar success in the future. This concept can also be applied to politics, where popular politicians may be easily reelected.
However, the political landscape is constantly changing, especially in races for the U.S. Senate, where terms are six years long. Despite this, even the most well-liked senators try not to be too confident in their chances of being reelected.
One exception to this is Mitt Romney who when asked about his plans for seeking a second term, confidently stated, "I'm convinced that if I run, I win." This statement is notable as Romney has often been critical of his own party.
Romney wasn’t shy about ridiculing former President Trump. In fact, Mitt Romney was the only Republican senator to vote to impeach the former president twice. He went rogue in the first impeachment by being the only senator to vote, “aye.”
Six other GOP senators joined Romney during the second sham impeachment. Both failed. But the question isn't so much whether Romney will run without President Trump's support as it is whether Utah voters will object to the way he turned his own party's president.
It seems a little arrogant to just assume you have an election in the bag just because you decide to run. Romney did dominate his primary opponent in 2018. He coasted to victory in the general election the following November. Romney may well have reason to be confident.
But since he coasted through his first election to the U.S. Senate, Romney has ticked off a number of Republicans. Nevertheless, he hasn’t ticked off D.C.’s top Republican brass. Kentucky Senator and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell strongly supports Romney.
Other members of the GOP leadership are also behind a Romney bid for reelection. McConnell even went so far as to tell Politico, “It’s important for the Republican Party and the country that he runs again.” Romney may have good reason to be confident.
While he doesn’t see eye-to-eye with President Trump, Romney is still a well-known face. However, like in sports, there are the occasional “upsets.” They usually happen to teams that grow overly confident. Republicans don’t need to look much past the recent 2022 midterms for proof of that.