Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani has surged to a double-digit lead in New York City’s mayoral race, according to a new Slingshot Strategies survey, placing incumbent Mayor Eric Adams in a distant fourth place. Conducted between July 2 and July 6, the survey shows Mamdani at 35%, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 25%, Republican Curtis Sliwa at 14%, and Adams trailing with just 11%.
The numbers highlight a dramatic collapse in support for Mayor Adams, who faces a daunting 62% disapproval rating and only 28% approval. Even Cuomo, despite past scandals and controversies, is surveying stronger with a 44% favorable rating compared to Adams’ freefall.
Perhaps most damaging for the incumbent is his weakening support among key Democratic constituencies. Among Black voters — once a cornerstone of Adams’ 2021 coalition — only 16% now say they support him. In contrast, Mamdani leads among that group with 35%, followed closely by Cuomo at 32%.
The survey reflects a broader shift in New York City politics: a clear fracture within the Democratic Party. Adams, who built his brand as a moderate, pro-law enforcement candidate, is now squeezed between Cuomo's establishment appeal and Mamdani’s ascendant left-wing movement.
Slingshot Strategies partner Evan Roth Smith explained the stark political reality. “The ballot is locked. Cuomo already lost to Mamdani in the primary, and Adams, despite being a sitting mayor, is surveying in the low double digits,” he told the New York Post. “There’s no viable consolidation path.”
Even Adams’ relative strength among Republicans — 26% support compared to Mamdani’s 7% — is not enough to counterbalance his erosion within the Democratic base. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa still leads the GOP vote with 43%.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old Assemblyman from Queens, has built a campaign around socialist policies: universal rent control, tax hikes on high-income earners, and reduced police funding. While his platform has energized younger, progressive voters, it’s drawn concern from moderates and homeowners in outer boroughs.
Smith pointed out the strategic problem for Mamdani’s opponents: “The voters skeptical of Mamdani aren’t unifying. And with both Cuomo and Adams still in the race — and publicly feuding — that fragmentation only helps Mamdani consolidate his lead.”
The latest surveying comes just weeks after Mamdani defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary, 56% to 44%, in the final round of ranked-choice voting. Despite that decisive loss, Cuomo remains in the race, as does Adams, who has refused to step aside.
Adams’ spokesperson Todd Shapiro dismissed the survey results, citing volatility in previous surveys. “Just weeks ago, Andrew Cuomo was ahead in multiple surveys and then lost the primary by double digits,” Shapiro said. “This is just another example of how out-of-touch and unreliable political surveying has become.”