In a striking turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris faced a decisive loss to former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The outcome wasn’t just a Republican victory; it was a profound shift in American voting patterns that saw traditionally Democratic strongholds crumble under an unexpectedly red wave. Examining this loss reveals a dramatic shift across the country, with Harris struggling in blue counties, losing ground with critical demographic groups, and experiencing a considerable erosion of support within communities that had reliably backed Democrats for decades.
One of the most remarkable aspects of this election was Trump’s performance in areas that hadn't voted Republican in over a century. For instance, Fall River, Massachusetts—a Democratic stronghold since 1924, when Calvin Coolidge was the last Republican to win it—shifted red, marking a stunning milestone.
Starr County, Texas, known for its overwhelmingly Hispanic population and historically Democratic lean, also went Republican for the first time since 1892. Anson County, North Carolina, a predominantly Black county that last saw a Republican victory in the 1870s, similarly broke from tradition, narrowly supporting Trump.
This pattern continued in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, where Trump became the first Republican victor since 1988. Though not a century-long Democratic hold, the shift demonstrated the extent of Harris’s struggles to maintain critical Democratic bases. Her campaign made modest gains among white women with college degrees, but this was offset by a pronounced swing toward Trump among voters of color. Support from voters of color with degrees fell sharply for Harris, dropping from +43 points for Biden in 2020 to just +35 points. Among voters of color without degrees, the shift was even starker, with Harris’s support slipping by 14 points compared to Biden’s margin.
Harris’s support among Hispanic voters dwindled as well, a demographic Biden had won by a decisive 32-point margin in 2020. In stark contrast, Harris led by only 8 points, with Trump even capturing the historically Democratic stronghold of Starr County. Latino men flipped to Trump by a 10-point margin, a considerable swing from Biden’s 23-point lead with the same group in 2020. Latina women also showed reduced enthusiasm for Harris, with her support dropping by 15 points compared to Biden’s 2020 numbers.
Though Harris maintained strong support among Black voters, there were critical signs of Republican inroads. Harris won 78% of the Black male vote—just 1% less than Biden in 2020. In Wisconsin and other key states, however, Trump saw a notable improvement with Black men. Among Black women, Harris improved marginally over Biden’s 2020 numbers, but this slight gain couldn’t counterbalance her overall decline in minority support nationwide.
One surprising demographic shift was Trump’s increased support among Jewish voters in New York, where he garnered 45% of the Jewish vote compared to his 30% share in 2020. The shift has been attributed to rising anti-Semitic incidents and protests on college campuses, which the Harris campaign was criticized for not addressing decisively. Although Harris retained 79% of the Jewish vote nationally, her loss in New York reflected a dissatisfaction that cut across traditional Democratic lines.
Trump also took the Catholic vote, a demographic Biden had carried in 2020, with 56% of Catholics voting for the former president. This shift was seen as a reaction to the perceived lack of strong positions from the Harris campaign on social and moral issues.
Harris’s struggles extended even to traditionally blue states, which she won but with narrower margins than her predecessors. In New Jersey, Harris’s lead was down to 5 points, a dramatic drop from Biden’s nearly 16-point margin in 2020. In Illinois, her lead also shrank to 8 points, compared to Biden’s 17-point advantage. Meanwhile, Trump expanded his lead in states like Florida and Texas, both now considered securely red. In Florida, he won by 13.3 points—up from just 3.3 points in 2020—and in Texas by 13.9 points, nearly tripling his margin from the previous election.