It’s turning into quite a race in New Hampshire, where a recent poll shows former President Donald Trump holding a slim lead over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
While New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Democratic over the last few decades, the latest numbers from the New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll, taken from October 24-26, reveal a narrow 50.2% to 49.8% advantage for Trump. With a history of close presidential contests, New Hampshire’s trend in the upcoming election could mean big shifts for both parties as they fight for every vote.
This recent poll showing Trump’s edge, though within a 5.12% margin of error, is already making waves. Trump’s lead marks the first time he’s pulled ahead in the state since July, just before President Joe Biden exited the race, throwing Harris into the spotlight as the new frontrunner.
According to Trump’s campaign spokesperson, New Hampshire native Karoline Leavitt, Harris’s campaign is in defensive mode. She noted that Harris’s recent campaign spending in New Hampshire signals an acknowledgment that Trump’s campaign is gaining serious traction there. Leavitt’s rallying cry to her “fellow Granite Staters” painted Harris as a “radical liberal” out of sync with the state’s values, urging voters to stick with Trump for a more conservative, business-friendly New Hampshire.
JUST IN: President Joe Biden calls for the imprisonment of Donald Trump during a campaign event in New Hampshire.
"We gotta lock him up."
The development comes as VP Kamala Harris has tried skating around the topic.
"This is a guy who also wants to replace every civil servant.… pic.twitter.com/33rm6QXYFu
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 22, 2024
A look back reveals that New Hampshire has a mixed history in presidential elections. In 2020, Biden won the state by seven points, and in 2016, Trump performed well in the GOP primary, capturing over 35% of the vote among a crowded field. This year, he’s already made history as the first non-incumbent Republican to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
However, polling results have recently varied; for instance, a recent Emerson College survey showed Harris leading by 50% to 47%. Another poll by Dartmouth earlier in October put her significantly ahead by 21 points. But as recent trends indicate, the race in New Hampshire seems to be narrowing.
Though New Hampshire holds only four Electoral College votes, they could prove pivotal in a tight election. A Trump victory here might also suggest a conservative resurgence in New England—a region often considered a Democratic stronghold.
Betting site Polymarket still gives Harris high odds at around 80% for carrying the state, yet Trump’s ongoing presence in New Hampshire highlights his determination to turn the state red. This determination even extended to his campaign reshuffling in September when a volunteer, claiming New Hampshire was “no longer a battleground state,” was removed, underscoring Trump’s belief that victory here is achievable.